Development status and development trend of lithium ion battery industry

1. The development status of lithium ion battery industry in 2017

According to the statistics of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the sales revenue of lithium-ion batteriesin China reached $23.72 billion  in 2017, up 19.5% from the year of 2016. The output of lithium-ion batteries increased from 87.3 billion Wh to 100.9 billion Wh, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. Mainly due to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle power battery and energy storage battery market. Among them, the sales revenue of lithium-ion batteries for consumer electronic products increased from $10.37 billion to $11.30 billion , an increase of about 9% year-on-year, and the output was 49 billion Wh, up 7% year-on-year to 52.4 billion Wh.

The sales revenue of power lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles and electric bicycles was $8.96 billion , up 30% year-on-year to $11.64 billion; the output was 33 billionWh, up 35% year-on-year to 44.6 billion Wh. The sales revenue of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage was 3.5 billion yuan, up 48% year-on-year to $ 0.78 billion, and the output increased from 2.5 billion Wh to 3.9 billion Wh, up 55% year-on-year.

In 2017, China's lithium-ion battery exports amounted to approximately 1.711 billion. In 2016, the export volume was approximately 1.517 billion, an increase of 12.79% compared with the previous year. In 2017, the export volume of lithium-ion batteries was approximately US$8.048 billion, and the export value in 2016 was approximately US$6.841billion, an increase of 17.64% year-on-year.

2. Development status of lithium ion battery industry in 2018

From January to November 2018, the top 20 enterprises in China's power lithium-ion battery installed capacity are shown in Table 15, accounting for 93.4% of the total installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries in the same period. From January to November 2018, China's power lithium-ion battery installed capacity statistics lithium iron oxide (LFP) was 16.11 billion Wh, 36.6%; ternary (NCM) was 26.96 billion Wh, 61.2%; lithium manganate (LMO) was 6.6 Billion Wh, 1.5%; lithium titanate (LTO) is 330 million Wh, 0.74%; total 44.06 billion Wh.

In 2018, the proportion of ternary power batteries has increased significantly. From the perspective of market demand, passenger cars will be the main force for the growth of new energy vehicles in the future. Due to the guidance of the subsidy policy and the high-density characteristics of the ternary battery itself, it can better meet the demand of the new energy passenger vehicle market. From the data of domestic mainstream battery manufacturers, the ternary battery has become the focus of battery technology development. Although lithium iron phosphate batteries have a broad market in the field of electric buses, with the advancement of technology, the cost of ternary batteries is gradually reduced, and the safety is gradually improved, which will have a significant impact on the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

With the gradual verification of the safety of ternary batteries and the increasing demand for cruising range in the consumer market, the national policy tends to support high-energy-powered batteries. High-nickel ternary material batteries are generally favored by the industry, attracting many power battery companies. Positive layout. The ternary battery companies are mostly focusing on the development of high-nickel ternary batteries. The technicalroute is rapidly advancing from the current mainstream NCM523 system to NCM622, NCM811 and NCA. After the subsidy is abolished in 2020, lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries and lithium manganate batteries will have their own application fields and development space.

In general, the power batteries of the square, cylindrical and soft package types have their own advantages, and each has its own shortcomings. Each battery has its own dominant field. The square ternary battery is mainly used in new energy passengers. In the car, the square lithium iron phosphate battery is mainly used in new energy buses.

With the subsidy policy on the higher and higher requirements of vehicle technology, system specific energy has become an important indicator. Single cells of the same material, due to different packaging forms, the monomer system has a certain difference in energy. The soft-packed battery packaged by the aluminum-plastic composite film is lighter than the square-type battery and the steel-packed cylindrical battery packaged in the aluminum case, and the internal resistance is small, and the safety guarantee is high, which attracts a large number of manufacturers' attention.

3. Lithium-ion battery market development trend

Battery safety should be highly valued by enterprises.

The high nickel and low cobaltization of the ternary cathode material has obvious advantages in improving the specific energy of the battery and reducing the material cost, but the safety and stability problems are more prominent. Due to the high technical barrier of high-nickel ternary cathode materials, the requirements in preparation process, equipment and production environment are much higher than ordinary ternary materials. Domestic high-nickel ternary materials still need to overcome many technical problems. In order to obtain higher subsidies, enterprises have reduced the thermal management requirements of battery systems under the requirement of increasing system specific energy, and there is a great security risk. In addition, most companies still lack sufficient experience in the production of ternary batteries, and the safety and longevity of batteries have yet to be tested. Enterprises should pay great attention to the safety of battery cells and systems.

Grid-level electrochemical energy storage burst, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is rapidly expanding.

The current grid demand for energy storage has changed from a simple power storage function to a rapid power adjustment function. The combination mode of "lithium battery + PCS" is the most economical and effective way to quickly adjust output. The performance and cost advantages of lithium batteries have begun to be recognized by the power sector. Coupled with the market-oriented reform of auxiliary services, the energy storage business model is becoming clearer. The investment scale will begin to enter a period of explosion in 2019.

Base station has huge demand for decommissioned lithium-ion batteries

Since 2015, China Tower has carried out trials of decommissioned power batteries for base station backup. The test sites cover different scenarios such as urban and rural areas, as well as high cold, high temperature and high humidity, and different base station types. On October 31, 2018, China Tower and 11 major energy vehicle mainstream enterprises signed a strategic cooperation agreement to further promote the pilot application of ladder batteries. The company currently has 1.8 million base stations nationwide, with a battery requirement of approximately 54 GWh for standby power, and approximately 44 GWh for 600,000 peak-cutting valley stations; approximately 500 GWh for 500,000 new energy stations. A total of about 146 GWh of battery is required. If the storage station battery is calculated for 6 years, the battery needs about 24.3 GWh per year. With 100,000 new base stations per year, it is estimated that the new  power station needs about 3 GWh of battery. A total of approximately 27 GWh of battery is required each year.

Lithium-ionization of low-speed electric vehicles and electric bicycles accelerates

The state put forward the general idea of “upgrading a batch, standardizing a batch, and eliminating a batch” for low-speed electric vehicles. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and  other six ministries and commissions issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Management of Low-Speed Electric Vehicles”. In the next step, it is possible to speed up the formulation and release of national standards such as “Technical Conditions for Four-Wheel Low-Speed Electric Vehicles”, speed up research and propose specific management measures for production, sales, taxes, insurance, use management and after-sales service of low-speed electric vehicles, and establish and improve low-speed electric vehicles. Vehicle management system.

The mandatory national standard for "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" (GB17761-2018) will be officially implemented on April 15, 2019, and electric bicycle companies are actively seeking to upgrade their models. Promoted the rapid start of the bicycle lithium battery market.

Lithium-ion battery technology development direction

The advancement of lithium-ion battery technology mainly comes from the research and application progress of key battery materials innovation, and further improve battery performance, improve quality, reduce cost and improve safety through the development of new materials. In order to meet the requirements of the downstream application for the specific energy increase of the battery, on the one hand, by using a material with a high specific capacity, on the other hand, by using a high voltage material by increasing the charging voltage.

While optimizing the existing system, lithium-ion power battery technology meets the needs of large-scale development of new energy vehicles, focusing on the development of new lithium-ion batteries, improving key technologies such as safety, consistency and longevity, and simultaneously developing new systems for lithium batteries. Forward-looking research and development, increase specific energy, significantly reduce costs, and realize the practical and large-scale application of lithium batteries in the new system.

To develop the lithium battery application market:

(1) accelerate the process of intelligent manufacturing in the industry. Higher requirements for high safety, high consistency, high yield and low manufacturing cost of the battery. At present, the overall trend of lithium-ion battery manufacturing development is: "high quality, high efficiency, high stability" and "information" , unmanned, visualized." Therefore, China's lithium-ion battery enterprises should accelerate the intelligent manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries through technological innovation, production automation and management standardization. To realize the intelligent manufacturing of the lithium-ion battery industry, we must first pay attention to automation and information construction, attach great importance to the in-depth integration of the two technologies, and develop intelligent solutions based on specific functional requirements. Through the use of intelligent solutions to ensure the safety, quality, consistency and traceability of lithium-ion battery manufacturing;

(2) attach great importance to battery ladder utilization and recycling. To carry out the use of the ladder, we must first understand the quality and safety performance of the decommissioned battery. Battery companies should establish a big data traceability system platform and an evaluation method for battery testing. Big data should include electric monomer R&D and production data, battery pack R&D and production data, and battery pack on-board operation monitoring data. Health evaluation of decommissioned batteries through big data to determine whether the battery can enter the ladder utilization market. In order to realize the use of ladders, it is necessary to pay attention to the standardization of battery cells and battery packs. As far as possible, a single battery with less specifications can be used in an enterprise, which can improve the level of production automation to reduce costs and improve product consistency, and facilitate future ladders. Disassembly and reorganization at the time of use.

Lithium-ion battery market demand is huge, industry competition is fierce, industry integration is continuing, the market will further concentrate on superior enterprises, enterprises should put quality and safety in the first place, only have strong technical accumulation, sufficient capital support, rational market positioning And the manufacturers that respond quickly to the market can take the lead in the fierce market competition in the future and win the market.